Welcome to the Analyst Blog — where you get all the latest news and perspectives for your industry. Read, comment and rate posts written by our analysts. And be sure to subscribe (by clicking on the e-mail icon in the upper right hand corner), so you can keep up with new content and comments easily.

For more than a year, we at IDC Energy Insights have been predicting that a comprehensive climate/energy bill would not happen. Our reasoning was simple: With 60 senators needed for any legislation to advance, there are too many Republicans and coal state Democrats to make a cap and trade program viable. The final nail in the coffin was hammered in by the distinguished new senator from West Virginia, Carte Goodwin, announcing that he would not support any bill with cap and trade in it. Imagine that: a West Virginia politician not wanting to harm the interests of the coal industry. While much of Washington is now transfixed with its usual mourning procedures for any bill that dies before becoming a law (first order of business: everybody blame everyone else), a few lonely voices are starting to whisper "What's next?" The answer is that there will definitely be some sort of energy bill passed by Congress before the August recess. What exact form it takes is anybody's guess.

With the BP oil spill successfully capped, at least temporarily, and the completion of a relief well in sight, it's time to look forward and assess the impact this disaster will have on renewable energy. Sadly, there's not much to assess. Since Senator Reid shelved the planned climate and energy bill until at least the fall, it looks like Congress couldn't or wouldn't use the oil spill as leverage to pass a carbon cap-and-trade program or a national renewable energy standard. What that leaves is an assessment of BP's own role in the renewable energy markets.

For the last three years, the world's auto manufacturers have been playing business history's biggest poker game. GM anted up first when it announced in 2007 that it would build the Chevy Volt--the world's first plug-in electric vehicle. Ford also got into the act, working on a plug-in version of the popular Focus sedan. The Europeans were next, with Daimler, BMW and Renault all coming up with their own EV models. Then Nissan made a splash with its announcement in 2009 that it would sell the Nissan Leaf. Each company came to the table with a slightly different technology. Two companies--Toyota and Honda--famously held back from the game. Toyota felt that it could ride its mild hybrid lead (thanks to the Prius). Honda claimed that EV's would be leapfrogged by fuel cell cars. That is until the past week.

We just published a new piece of research focused on Virtual Power Plants (Best Practices: Operationalizing Virtual Power Plants in Europe - RWE Collaborates with Siemens, Document #EIR01S). The report provides in-depth into the RWE Virtual Power Plant (VPP) implementation, which seeks to demonstrate how the virtual power plant concept can be concretely adopted, by aggregating large enough quantities of generated electricity or power capacity that can be trade on the energy power markets.

A recent report from the American Energy Innovation Council, a star-studded organization that includes everyone from climate scientist Ken Caldeira to Bill Gates, has called for a simple solution for solving America's energy problems: Have the federal government fund energy research to the tune of $16 billion per year. It seems like a good idea until you ponder the question of what problem this idea is trying to solve.

Have you ever tried one of those bio-degradable, recycled cardboard coffee cups and felt all good about yourself until the cup started leaking onto your lap? Environmentally aware consumer choices can be a negative experience when the green option turns out to be fundamentally inferior to the conventional choice. That's what I wanted to find out during my visit to"Le Hive"--the new Schneider Electric headquarters in Paris: Did the dramatic reductions in energy consumption that the building has achieved, all by utilizing Schneider-built technologies--lead to a noticeably negative experience in terms of comfort level? The answer, in a word, was non.

Coauthored by Casey Hogan.
The IDC Energy Insight's team recently had the opportunity to tour the ProLogis Rooftop Photovoltaic Test Site in Denver. ProLogis, which owns 475 million square feet of warehouse properties in North America, Europe, and Asia, is aggressively pursuing the deployment of solar on the rooftops of its buildings. However, as a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), ProLogis does not have the kind of tax appetite that would enable it to take advantage of tax credit or tax grant based incentives for solar installations that have boosted the growth of renewables in the US. Beyond that challenge, generating electricity is too far outside the company's core business model to warrant significant investment. Instead, ProLogis is working to become the partner of choice for rooftop solar PV developers.

When Toyota launched the Prius in 1997, a new term was born in the auto industry: the "halo car". Although the early Prius was a loss leader, Toyota earned a favorable impression from consumers--even the ones that don't buy a Prius--for its eco-leadership. Many people think of the upcoming Chevy Volt--GM's first mass production electric vehicle--as its version of a halo car. Actually, GM is more interested in the Volt as a "helium car" than as a halo car.

Hybrid solar thermal plants are getting hot: numerous projects are scheduled to come online in 2010, and developers are hoping the projects will demonstrate attractive economics that drive rapid growth in the sector over the coming years. At the same time, developers are undertaking efforts to use molten salt thermal storage to improve the economics of standalone central solar thermal (CST) plants. That raises the question: will these two approaches complement or compete with each other?

Between January and May, 2010 there were 35 publicly announced investments in North American solar technology companies totaling over $2 billion. Technology types included concentrating photovoltaic (CPV), crystalline silicon PV (C-Si), concentrating solar power (CSP), inverters and thin film PV. Types of investments included acquisitions, debt, equity, government grants and government loan guarantees.

On my recent 10-day trip to Asia one thing became clear to me - the Asian conglomerates, known as Chaebol in Korea and Kieretsu in Japan, are poised to become much larger global players in the cleantech markets. In the west, most energy industry insiders already know that Sharp is one of the largest global providers of chrystalline silicon (C-Si) and thin film PV modules. A smaller number probably know that LG Chem was selected by GM to provide lithium ion batteries for the Chevy Volt. But few realize the true scope of these businesses and their planned levels of investment. Don't assume that these companies are only interested in dominating their home countries - markets that are too small to matter when compared to the U.S., China and India. And don't forget that Korea and Japan are essentially export economies.

Number One: Smart grid security is a very evolving landscape and will continue to be so for several years to come. Keep an eye on the FIPS standard as an important part of the overall picture. The electricity system essentially needs military grade security for every node of the network.

At the recent Electricity Storage Association meeting in Charlotte, N.C., most of the news was the lack of news: the conference comprised mainly the same players pitching the same products to a utilities industry with the same "Show-Me" attitude. Although the smart grid demonstration grant program, which comprised some $630 million in stimulus funds for projects related to energy storage gave a lift to some of the companies exhibiting their wares, much of the discussion was focused on what will happen after the smart grid projects disappear: will the industry continue to flourish or will it hit the same brick walls it has been slamming against in the past?

Google recently announced that it has made an investment of $38.8 million in two wind farms in North Dakota being developed by NextEra Energy Resources, a unit of FPL Group. The wind farms will use GE wind turbines to produce 169.5 MW of power. This is the first renewable energy investment by Google, Inc. Prior energy investments, totalling over $45 million, have come from Google's philanthropic arm - Google.org. These prior investments have gone to early stage renewable energy technology companies such as eSolar, Brightsource, AltaRock and Makani. Additionally, Google was approved in February by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to buy and sell power on Federally regulated wholesale power markets, has launched its PowerMeter consumer energy management portal, and has been lobbying Federal and State governments to force utilities to provide open access to smart metering data.

The Interior Department officially gave its blessing to the Cape Wind offshore wind power project today. It was a long time coming. The Cape Wind developers began the process of licensing and permitting more than nine years ago, but their journey isn't over yet. Opponents are threatening a series of lawsuits that will continue to stymie the development and, they hope, prevent a single turbine from ever being planted in the sea.